ໂຄງການພະລັງງານ ແສງອາທິດ ແລະລົມ ແມ່ນເປັນສິ່ງທີ່ທ້າທາຍ ຢ່າງໃຫຍ່ ຕໍ່ພະລັງ
ງານນໍ້າໃນຂົງເຂດແມ່ນໍ້າຂອງ ໃນເອເຊຍອາຄະເນ ຊຶ່ງວັນນະສອນ ຈະນຳລາຍລະອຽດ
ມາສະເໜີທ່ານ ໃນອັນດັບຕໍ່ໄປ.
ສັນຍາຕ່າງໆດ້ານພະລັງງານລົມແລະພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ ໃນຈຳນວນຫຼາຍພັນ
ເມກາວັດ ໃນຂົງເຂດແມ່ນໍ້າຂອງ ແມ່ນໄດ້ເຊັນກັນແລ້ວ ຊຶ່ງເປັນການທ້າທາຍທາງ
ການເງິນຢ່າງໃຫຽ່ຫຼວງ ຕໍ່ໂຄງການເຄື່ອນໄຟຟ້າ ໃນແມ່ນ້ຳ, ອີງຕາມນັກຊ່ຽວຊານ
ທາງດ້ານພະລັງງານ ທີ່ກ່າວຕໍ່ກອງປະຊຸມກ່ຽວກັບແມ່ນ້ຳຄັ້ງສຳຄັນ ໃນສັບປະດາ
ແລ້ວນີ້.
ການໂຈະໄວ້ ຍ້ອນການຕັດສິນໃຈຂອງລັດຖະບານໄທ ຫວ່າງມໍ່ໆມານີ້ ທີ່ເລື່ອນຊື້
ພະລັງງານໄຟຟ້າຈາກເຄື່ອນໃນແມ່ນໍ້າຂອງນັ້ນ, ພວກສະແຫວງຫາພະລັງງານ
ສະອາດແລະພວກນັກເສດຖະສາດ ໄດ້ກ່າວໃນກອງປະຊຸມສູງສຸດແມ່ນໍ້າຂອງ ຄັ້ງທີ
3 ວ່າ ຕະຫຼາດພະລັງງານໃນຂົງເຂດ ແມ່ນໄດ້ຕົກມາເຖິງຈຸດບັນຈົບຂອງວິວັດທະນາ
ການດ້ານເທັກໂນໂລຈີແລ້ວ.
ທ່ານ ໄບຣເອັນ ໄອເລີ (Brian Eyler) ຜູ້ອຳນວຍການ ຈາກສູນກາງສຕິມຊັນ ເອເຊຍ
ອາຄະເນ (Stimson Center’s Southeast Asia Program) ໄດ້ກ່າວວ່າ ສັນຍາ
ຈາກພະລັງງານລົມແລະແສງອາທິດ ຄວາມແຮງ 6 ພັນເມກາວັດ ໄດ້ເຊັນກັນແລ້ວ
ໃນກຳປູເຈຍ, ຫວຽດນາມ ໄທ ແລະລາວ ໃນຮອບ 6 ເດືອນຜ່ານມານີ້.
“ໃນເດືອນມັງກອນ 2017 ນີ້, ຄະນະຂອງຂ້າພະເຈົ້າ ໄດ້ໄປຢ້ຽມຢາມໂຮງງານ
ໄຟຟ້າທີ່ກຳປູເຈຍ ແລ້ວໃຫ້ຄຳແນະນຳວ່າ ໃຫ້ເອົາພະລັງງານເສງອາທິດແລະ
ພະລັງງານລົມປະກອບສ່ວນເຂົ້າຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນ ໃນແຜນພັດທະນາ ຊຶ່ງທ່ານກ່າວວ່າ
ອັນນັ້ນ ເວົ້າແທ້ແລ້ວ ແມ່ນບໍ່ໄດ້ຍົກຂຶ້ນມາສົນທະນາກັນເລີຍ ໃນເດືອນມັງກອນ
ປີ 2017.”
“ໃນນຶ່ງປີຕໍ່ມາ ກຳປູເຈຍ ກໍໄດ້ປະຕິຮູບໃໝ່ໝົດ ລະບຽບການດ້ານພະລັງງານ
ຂອງຕົນ ໂດຍຕິດຕັ້ງພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດໃສ່ຢ່າງໃຫຽ່ ພາຍໃນປະເທດ.
ຖ້າຫາກວ່າກຳປູເຈຍເຮັດ ແນ່ນອນ ທ່ານຄວນເຊື່ອໄດ້ໂລດວ່າ ປະເທດອື່ນ
ໃນຂົງເຂດກໍຈະເຮັດຕາມ.”
ທ່ານນາງ ຮັນຈັງ ລີ (Hyunjung Lee) ນັກເສດຖະສາດດ້ານພະລັງງານອາວຸໂສ
ຂອງທະນາຄານພັດທະນາເອເຊຍ ຫຼື ADB ພາກພື້ນເອເຊຍອາຄະເນ ໄດ້ກ່າວວ່າ ພະລັງງານທັງຫຼາຍ ເຊັ່ນພະລັງງານລົມແລະແສງອາທິດ “ຈະເປັນທີ່ນິຍົມຢ່າງໃຫຍ່
ຫຼວງໃນຂົງເຂດ ຕາມຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກຂອງຂ້າພະເຈົ້າ.”
ທ່ານນາງເວົ້າວ່າ “ບັນຍາກາດໃນຂົງເຂດ ແມ່ນໄດ້ມີການປ່ຽນແປງ ໃນຮອບນຶ່ງປີ
ຜ່ານມານີ້ ສະນັ້ນ ພວກເຮົາ ຈຶ່ງໄດ້ເຫັນການພັດມະນາຢ່າງຫຼວງຫຼາຍ ໃນດ້ານ
ພະລັງງານລົມແລະແສງອາທິດ ໃນຂົງເຂດ ແລະມັນກໍຈະກາຍມາເປັນຄວາມຈິງ
ແທ້ໆ ເປັນຄວາມຈິງອີ່ຫຼີ ໂດຍບໍ່ຕ້ອງກັບໄປຫາພະລັງງານນໍ້າອີກ, ມັນຄວນຈະມີ
ການປະສົມປະສານກັນນີ້ຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນຕື່ມ.”
ທ່ານນາງ ລີ ກ່າວວ່າ ທະນາຄານພັດທະນາເອເຊຍ ກຳລັງຈັດຕັ້ງສູນກາງພະລັງ
ງານເພື່ອປະສານງານໃນຂົງເຂດ ຮຽນແບບຈາກໂຄງການປະສົບຜົນສຳເລັດໃນ
ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງອາຟຣິກາ ເຂົ້າໃນການຕະຫຼາດຂອງຂົງເຂດ.
ສະພາ MRC ທີ່ສ້າງຕັ້ງຂຶ້ນມາໄດ້ 6 ປີແລ້ວ ນັ້ນ ໄດ້ສຶກສາເບິ່ງ ໂຄງການພັດທະນາ
ສຳລັບແມ່ນໍ້າຂອງ ທີ່ເພັ່ງເລັງໃສ່ ຢູ່ໃນກອງປະຊຸມສຸດຍອດນັ້ນ ທີ່ສະເໜີແນະວ່າ
ຈະມີຜົນກະທົບທີ່ຮ້າຍແຮງຕໍ່ລະບົບນິເວດຂອງແມ່ນ້ຳ ຖ້າຫາກວ່າ ທັງໝົດ 11 ໂຄງ
ການໃນແມ່ນ້ຳ ໃຫຽ່ທີ່ີໄດ້ວາງແຜນໄວ້ ແລະອີກຫຼາຍກວ່າ 100 ພະລັງໄຟຟ້າໃນສາ
ຂາຕ່າງໆຫາກສ້າງຂຶ້ນ.
ໃນລາຍງານສະບັບນຶ່ງ ໄດ້ນຳອອກເຜີຍແຜ່ ໃນເດືອນມັງກອນ ຜ່ານມານີ້ ອົງການ
ພະລັງງານທົດແທນນາໆຊາດ ຫຼື (International Renewable Energy Agency)
ໄດ້ພົບເຫັນວ່າ ຄ່າໄຟຟ້າໃນລະດັບທີ່ໃຊ້ໃນຄົວເຮືອນຈາກພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ
ໄດ້ຫຼຸດລົງ 73 ເປີເຊັນ ຈາກ ປີ 2010 ຫາປີ 2017 ແລະຄາດວ່າຈະຫຼຸດລົງອີກເຄິ່ງນຶ່ງ
ໃນປີ 2020.
ໃນການປະເມີນລາຄາ ຄ່າຂອງພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ ຈະຫຼຸດລົງຕ່ຳກວ່າ ພະລັງງານ
ຈາກພະລັງນ້ຳ ພາຍໃນປີ 2020 ເປັນເວລາດົນກວ່າຕັ້ງຫຼາຍ ກ່ອນທີ່ໂຄງການເຂື່ອນ
ຕ່າງໆຂອງແມ່ນໍ້າຂອງ ຈະອອກມາທາງອອນໄລນ໌.
ພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ ໃນທົ່ວໂລກ ສາມາດທີ່ຈະຂະຫຍາຍອອກ 32 ເປີເຊັນ
ເພີ່ມໃສ່ 94 ກີກາວັດ ໃນປີ 2017 ໃນຂະນະທີ່ພະລັງງານທົດແທນ ທັງໝົດ ໄດ້ເພີ່ມ
ຂຶ້ນແລ້ວ 8.3 ເປີເຊັນ. ການສຳຫຼວດຂອງອົງການ IREA ໄດ້ພົບເຫັນ 15 ພັນ ຂໍ້ມູນ.
ພະລັງງານ ທົດແທນ ແລະ ພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ ໄດ້ຂະຫຍາຍຕົວອອກຢ່າງວ່ອງໄວ
ໃນເອເຊຍຫຼາຍ
ກວ່າທຸກໆແຫ່ງໃນໂລກ ໃນຂະນະທີ່ພະລັງງານຈາກພະລັງນ້ຳ ທີ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຮັບເໝົາ
ໃຫ້ສ້າງຂຶ້ນນັ້ນ ແມ່ນຫຼຸດລົງ ໃນຮອບນຶ່ງທົດສະວັດຜ່ານມາ.
ທ່ານນາງ ວັງ ເວິນລິງ (Wang Wenling) ອາຈານສອນຈາກສະຖາບັນແມ່ນ້ຳນາໆ
ຊາດ ແລະການປົກປັກຮັກສາລະບົບນິເວດ ຈາກມະຫາວິທະຍາໄລ ຢຸນນານ ກ່າວວ່າ
ທ່ານນາງ ໄດ້ເຫັນກັບຕາ ວ່າ ລາຄາຈາກເທັກໂທໂລຈີຂອງພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ
ແມ່ນໄດ້ຫຼຸດລົງ ໃນການຢ້ຽມຢາມລັດຄາໂລໄລນາເໜືອ ໃນສະຫະລັດ ຫວ່າງມໍ່ໆມານີ້.
ທ່ານນາງ ໄດ້ກ່າວວ່າ“ຂ້າພະເຈົ້າຕົກໃຈທີ່ວ່າ ລາຄາຂອງພະລັງງານແສງອາທິດ
ຂອງພວກເຂົາເຈົ້າ ຕໍ່ຫົວໜ່ວຍ ແມ່ນຖືກກວ່າ ພະລັງງານນ້ຳ. ຂ້າພະເຈົ້າບໍ່ຮູ້ວ່າ
ພວກເຂົາເຈົ້າເຮັດໄດ້ຈັ່ງໃດ. ມັນເກືອບວ່າເປັນໄປບໍ່ໄດ້ສຳຫຼັບຂ້າພະເຈົ້າ ລາຄາຂອງພວກເຂົາເຈົ້າແມ່ນ ປະມານ 15 ເປີເຊັນ ຂອງລາຄາໃນຈີນ.”
Solar and wind power projects are making a big leap challenging hydro-electric power in the Mekong region of Southeast Asia.
Thousands of megawatts of wind and solar energy contracts in the Mekong region have been signed, seriously challenging the financial viability of major hydropower projects on the river, an energy expert told a landmark water conference last week.
Buoyed by a recent Thai government decision to delay a power purchase deal with a major mainstream Mekong dam, clean energy proponents and economists told the 3rdMekong River Commission Summit that the regional energy market was on the cusp of a technological revolution.
Brian Eyler, Director of the Stimson Center's Southeast Asia Program, said 6,000 megawatts worth of wind and solar contracts had been signed in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Laos in the last six months.
"In January 2017 my team visited with Cambodia's energy plant making the suggestion of incorporating more solar and wind into the power development plan. That was basically off the table in January 2017," he said.
"In a year's time Cambodia has entirely restructured its energy sector to outlay the new set of regulations that will robustly deploy scaled solar within the country. And if Cambodia's doing it, you can bet that the other countries are doing it as well."
Hyunjung Lee, Senior Energy Economist at the Asian Development Bank's (ADB's) Southeast Asia Energy Division, said technologies such as wind and solar were "going to hit the region very significantly in my view."
"The atmosphere in the region has been changed actually in the past one year even," she said.
"So we see a lot of development can happen in solar and wind in the region and how it can happen actually in reality, not to repeat the experience of hydro it should have more integrated approaches," she said.
Lee said the ADB was working to set up a Regional Power Coordination Centre mimicking a highly successful project in Southern Africa to create an efficient, integrated regional market.
A six-year MRC Council Study on development plans for the Mekong, that was the focus of the summit, suggested catastrophic impacts to the health of the river system if all planned 11 mainstream and more than 100 tributary hydropower dams are built.
In a report handed down in January, the International Renewable Energy Agency found that the cost of electricity for utility scale solar had fallen by 73 percent from 2010 to 2017 and forecast it to halve again by 2020.
At that price trajectory, the cost of solar power would fall below hydropower by 2020, long before many planned Mekong dams go online.
Global solar capacity grew 32 percent, adding 94 gigawatts in 2017 while renewables across the board increased by 8.3 percent, the IREA survey of 15,000 data points found. Renewables and solar grew faster in Asia than anywhere else in the world while the amount of hydropower commissioned across the globe was the lowest in a decade.
Wang Wenling, an assistant professor at Yunnan University's Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, said she had just seen firsthand how far the price of solar technology had plummeted on a recent trip to North Carolina in the United States.
"I was super surprised how their solar power production cost per unit is actually cheaper than hydropower. I don't know how they make it, it's almost impossible for me but their cost is only about 15 percent of the cost in China," she said.
"So I think we have a lot of alternatives and it needs to be considered," she said.
Some participants, particularly from Laos and Cambodia, remained skeptical of the technology.
"I think we need some more figures," said a Cambodian member of the audience, raising concerns about stability. "We also think about some figure for the comparison between the occupation of the land of hydropower with solar energy," he said.
Jake Brunner, Program Coordinator for the International Union for Conservation of Nature, said the figures for solar were particularly attractive in Cambodia, where land remained relatively cheap while energy demand was high in neighboring southern Vietnam.
"We calculated that if you took one 10,000 hectare Economic Land Concession in Cambodia for example and you made some very conservative assumptions, you could generate about three gigwatts, which is pretty close to Cambodia's entire national consumption - not quite," he said.
Land is a particularly sensitive issue in Cambodia where rights group Licadho says more than half a million people have been affected by land conflicts.
Gregory Thomas, Executive Director of the Natural Heritage Institute, told the summit his organization had researched a solar photovoltaic alternative for Cambodia that didn't require any land at all.
Instead of building the massive planned Sambor dam on the Mekong mainstream, a "no dam alternative" study commissioned by the Cambodian government had recommended placing solar cells on the existing reservoir of the Lower Sesan II dam in Stung Treng.
"The advantage of integrating solar arrays on a hydropower reservoir that already exists is that you can use the unoccupied space on the reservoir without any land use conflicts whatsoever," he said.
"And of course the reservoir storage acts as a battery essentially to backstop the intermittent nature of the solar generation."
Such a project could be cost competitive and go online much quicker than a hydropower dam, with 100 megwatts deployable in year, he said.
Floating solar projects are being developed around the world, including in China where an enormous 150 megawatt installation on a lake that used to be a deserted coal mine is expected to go online in May powering some 15,000 homes.