ລິ້ງ ສຳຫລັບເຂົ້າຫາ

ວັນຈັນ, ໐໒ ທັນວາ ໒໐໒໔

ການ​ບຸກ​ລຸກ​ຂອງ​ຣັດ​ເຊຍ ​​ເຂົ້າ​ໄປໃນຢູ​ເຄ​ຣນ ມີຜົນ​ກະ​ທົບ​ຕໍ່​ເສດ​ຖະ​ກິດຂອງ​ຈີນ ​ຄື​ແນວ​ໃດ


ທ່ານ Wang Yi, ລັດ​ຖະ​ມົນ​ຕີ​ການ​ຕ່າງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ຈີນ ກ່າວ​ຄຳ​ປາ​ໄສ​ໃນ​ກອງ​ປະ​ຊຸມ​ນັກ​ຂ່າວ​ທີ່​ກ່າວ​ຜ່ານ​ທາງວີ​ດິ​ໂອໂດຍ​ເອີ້ນຣັດ​ເຊຍ​ວ່າ "ເປັນ​ຄູ່​ຮ່ວມ​ມື​ທາງ​ຍຸດ​ທະ​ສາດ​ທີ່​ສຳ​ຄັນ​ທີ່​ສຸດ" ຂະ​ນະ​ທີ່​ປະ​ຕິ​ເສດ​ມາ​ຕະ​ຫລອດບໍ່​ຍອມ​​ປະ​ນາມ​ການ​ບຸກລຸກ​ຢູ​ເຄ​ຣນ​ຂອງ​ຣັດ​ເຊຍ, 7 ມີ​ນາ, 2022.
ທ່ານ Wang Yi, ລັດ​ຖະ​ມົນ​ຕີ​ການ​ຕ່າງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ຈີນ ກ່າວ​ຄຳ​ປາ​ໄສ​ໃນ​ກອງ​ປະ​ຊຸມ​ນັກ​ຂ່າວ​ທີ່​ກ່າວ​ຜ່ານ​ທາງວີ​ດິ​ໂອໂດຍ​ເອີ້ນຣັດ​ເຊຍ​ວ່າ "ເປັນ​ຄູ່​ຮ່ວມ​ມື​ທາງ​ຍຸດ​ທະ​ສາດ​ທີ່​ສຳ​ຄັນ​ທີ່​ສຸດ" ຂະ​ນະ​ທີ່​ປະ​ຕິ​ເສດ​ມາ​ຕະ​ຫລອດບໍ່​ຍອມ​​ປະ​ນາມ​ການ​ບຸກລຸກ​ຢູ​ເຄ​ຣນ​ຂອງ​ຣັດ​ເຊຍ, 7 ມີ​ນາ, 2022.

ຜູ້ນຳ​ທາງ​ການ​ເມືອງ​ລະດັບ​ສູງ​ຂອງ​ຈີນ​ ໄດ້​ພົບ​ປະ​ກັນ​ຢູ່​ນະຄອນຫຼວງ​ປັກ​ກິ່ງ​ໃນ​ອາທິດ​ນີ້ ​ແລະ​ໄດ້​ປະກາດ​ເປົ້າ​ໝາຍ GDP ​ໃໝ່​ຂອງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ໃນ​ປີ 2022, ​ກໍ​ຄື​ເກນ​ມາດ​ຕະ​ຖານ​ສຳ​ຄັນທີ່​ນາຍົກລັດຖະມົນຕີຫລີ ເຄີ້​ສຽງກ່າວ​ວ່າ ຈະ​ຢູ່​ປະມານ 5.5 ເປີ​ເຊັນ ຊຶ່ງ​ເປັນ​ເປົ້າ​ໝາຍຕ່ຳ​ທີ່ສຸດ​ ໃນ​ຮອບ​ຫຼາຍ​ທົດ​ສະ​ວັດ.

ຫຼັງຈາກສອງປີແຫ່ງການຕໍ່ສູ້ກັບການລະບາດຂອງ​ໄວ​ຣັ​ສ​ໂຄ​ໂຣ​ນາແລ້ວ ປັກກິ່ງ ຍັງຕ້ອງໄດ້ຮັບມືກັບຄວາມວຸ້ນວາຍໃນຕະຫຼາດອະສັງຫາລິມະຊັບ ແລະການລົ້ມ ລະລາຍຂອງບັນ​ດາບໍ​ລິ​ສັດພັດທະນາອະ​ສັງ​ຫາ​ລິ​ມະ​ຊັບໃຫຍ່, ຫນີ້ສິນທີ່ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ ແລະຄວາມເຄັ່ງຕຶງທາງການຄ້າຢ່າງຕໍ່ເນື່ອງກັບສະຫະລັດ. ​ແຕ່​ບັນດາ​ຜູ້​ນຳ​ກ່າວ​ຢ່າງ​ເປີດ​ເຜີຍ​ພຽງ​ເລັກ​ນ້ອຍ ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບການ​ບຸກ​ລຸກ​ຂອງຣັດ​ເຊຍ ​ໃນ​ຢູ​ເຄ​ຣນ ​ວ່າ​ມັນຈະ​ສົ່ງ​ຜົນ​ກະທົບ​ຕໍ່​ການ​ເຕີບ​ໂຕ​ດ້ານ​ເສດຖະກິດຄືແນວ​ໃດ.

ພວກນັກວິເຄາະບອກນັກຂ່າວວີໂອເອພາ​ສາ​ຈີນ​ກາງວ່າ ສົງຄາມໃນຢູເຄຣນ ອາດຈະສົ່ງຜົນກະທົບທັງໄລຍະສັ້ນ ແລະໄລຍະຍາວ ເຊັ່ນວ່າ ​ການຄ້າຂາຍສິນ ຄ້າຖືກ​ກະ​ທົບ​ກະ​ເທືອນ ແລະການເພີ້ມຄວາມພະຍາຍາມຂອງສະຫະລັດ ທີ່ຈະປ້ອງ​ກັນຕົນເອງບໍ່​ໃຫ້​ຖືກຜົນກະທົບ​ໜັກທາງດ້ານພູມສາດການເມືອງ ຕໍ່ຕ່ອງໂສ້ການສະໜອງສິນ​ຄ້າສາກົນ ທີ່ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ແຮງ​ຜັກ​ດັນຈາກພາກສ່ວນທີ່ ສຳຄັນຂອງເສດຖະກິດຈີນ. .

ເຈົ້າ​ໜ້າ​ທີ່​ຈີນ​ໃນ​ອາ​ທິດ​ນີ້​ ບໍ່​ໄດ້​ປະ​ຕິ​ເສດ​ການ​ທ້າ​ທາຍ​ທີ່​ເຂົາ​ເຈົ້າ​ປະ​ເຊີນ​ຢູ່ ແຕ່​ກໍຍັງ​ມີ​ຄວາມ​ໝັ້ນ​ໃຈ.

ໃນ​ການ​ກ່າວ​ຄຳ​ປາ​ໄສ​ໃນ​ລະຫວ່າງກອງ​ປະຊຸມສອງ​ຄັ້ງຊຶ່ງ​ໄດ້​ເລີ້​ມຂຶ້ນ​ໃນ​ທ້າຍ​ອາທິດ​ແລ້ວ​ນີ້ ​ແລະ​ສິ້ນ​ສຸດ​ລົງ​ໃນ​ວັນ​ສຸກຜ່ານ​ມານັ້ນ ທ່ານ​ຫຼີ​ ກ່າວ​ວ່າ, "ບໍ່​ມີ​ຄວາມ​ສົງ​ໄສ​ວ່າ​ເສດຖະກິດ​ຂອງ​ຈີນ​ຈະ​ທົນທານ​ຕໍ່ຄວາມ​ກົດ​ດັນ​ໃຫ້ຫຼຸດ​ລົງ ​ແລະ​ສືບ​ຕໍ່​ເຕີບ​ໂຕ​ຢ່າງ​ບໍ່​ຢຸດ​ຢັ້ງໄປ​ໃນ​ອະນາຄົດ."

ຢ່າງໃດກໍ່ຕາມ, ນັກເສດຖະສາດ ຄິດວ່າເປົ້າຫມາຍ 5.5 ເປີ​ເຊັນ ອາດຈະສູງ ໄປ​ແດ່ ເນື່ອງຈາກການກະທົບກະເທືອນເສດຖະກິດໂລກຈາກການສູ້ລົບ​ ໃນຢູ​ເຄ​ຣນ.

ທ່ານຊູ ທຽນ​ເຊນ (Xu Tianchen), ນັກ​ເສດຖະສາດ​ຂອງ​ວາ​ລະ​ສານ Economist Intelligence Unit ຫລື EIU ກ່າວ​ຕໍ່ວີ​ໂອ​ເອພາສາ​ຈີນ​ກາງວ່າ “ເປົ້າໝາຍ​ການ​ເຕີບ​ໂຕ​ຂອງ​ຈີນປາ​ກົດ​ວ່າບໍ່​ໄດ້ເອົາປັດ​ໄຈວິ​ກິດ​ການໃນ​ຢູ​ເຄຣນ​ນຳເຂົ້າ​ໃສ່​ນຳ.”

ອ່ານ​ຂ່າວນີ້​ເພີ້ມ​ເປັນ​ພາ​ສາ​ອັງ​ກິດ

China's top political leaders are meeting in Beijing this week and have announced the country’s new GDP goal for 2022, a major benchmark that Premier Li Keqiang has said will remain around 5.5%, the lowest target in decades.

After two years of grappling with the coronavirus pandemic, Beijing is also dealing with turmoil in real estate markets and bankruptcies of large developers, rising debt and continuing trade tensions with the United States. But leaders are saying little publicly about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will affect economic growth.

Analysts tell VOA’s Mandarin service that the war in Ukraine could bring both short and long-term impacts, such as disruption in the trade of goods and increased U.S. efforts to insulate itself from geopolitical shocks to international supply chains fueled by key sectors of the Chinese economy. (( https://www.voanews.com/a/us-announces-steps-to-bolster-critical-mineral-supply-chain-us-china-materials/6455245.html ))

Chinese officials this week did not deny the challenges they face but remain confident.

In a speech during the Two Sessions, which began late last week and wraps up on Friday, Premier Li said, "There is no doubt that China's economy will withstand any downward pressure and continue growing steadily long into the future.”

Economists, however, think the 5.5% goal may be a bit high, given the global economic shocks from the fighting in Ukraine.

“China’s growth target didn’t seem to factor in the Ukraine crisis,” Xu Tianchen, a China economist at the research group Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told VOA Mandarin.

“The target will be challenging to meet — given recurring mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 outbreaks, weak domestic demand and a distressed housing market — and would require the government to boost pro-growth policies such as infrastructure investment,” he added. “The Ukraine crisis will add to the challenges as China faces soaring commodity prices.”

David Dollar, a leading expert on China’s economy at the Brookings Institution, agreed.

“The tragic situation in Ukraine will have some spillover on the Chinese economy because the EU is one of China’s big trading partners,” he told VOA Mandarin.

Upside and downside

China’s trade with Russia and Ukraine is valued at $147 billion and $19 billion respectively, according to Chinese customs data.(( http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/4127455/index.html )) These transactions will likely be affected by the ongoing conflict and sanctions imposed.

Facing intensifying sanctions from Western countries, Russia’s leadership will increasingly try to turn to China for goods. That is the biggest upside for China, said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“Russia will gladly sell oil and gas, plus wheat and other grains, at lower prices to China. Russia will also likely be willing to pay higher prices for a wide range of Chinese products, from semiconductors to clothing, he told VOA Mandarin.

Yet according to EIU’s Xu, international sanctions on technology will pose compliance risks to Chinese companies, which have now established a large presence in the Russian consumer market. High-tech firms, such as Xiaomi and Lenovo, will have to take a loss if they choose to comply with the U.S.’s export controls against Russia because a majority of their products use U.S. technology.

“They will be reluctant to circumvent global sanctions in ways that could jeopardize their more profitable operations elsewhere,” Xu told VOA Mandarin.

The ongoing crisis will also have a negative impact on the world’s supply chain. According to an analysis released by from the EIU last week, the disruption in land-based trade routes between Asia and Europe will increase as transit through Russia becomes more difficult.

“This will particularly affect some Chinese companies, which had increased their traffic over land-based routes through Russia [en route to Europe] as an alternative to sea and air freight during the coronavirus pandemic,” it said. (( https://www.eiu.com/n/global-economic-implications-of-the-russia-ukraine-war/ ))

Economic decoupling

Meanwhile, Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine has put it in an awkward position in the international arena. China has voiced opposition to sanctions, saying they are ineffective to solve problems. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also said on Monday that the relationship between China and Russia is “rock solid.”

Analysts pointed out that China's pro-Russian stance may cause the West to further reduce its dependence on key Chinese supply lines, which could dampen China’s economy and innovation in the long term. (( https://www.reuters.com/business/white-house-unveils-more-steps-strengthen-us-supply-chains-2022-02-24/ ))

According to Scott Kennedy, a China economist at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, the invasion of Ukraine, along with China’s reluctance to criticize Putin’s actions, “may galvanize the U.S. political establishment and the United States’ allies that results in a far more robust effort to compete with China and Russia.” (( https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-economy-and-ukraine-all-downside-risks ))

Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said that although China has greatly strengthened its innovation in recent years, it does not have the ability to maintain its momentum if it decouples from the West.

“China's economy is still heavily reliant on engagement with the rest of the world, and it is not self-sufficient in advanced technology areas that are critical for its own security and prosperity,” she told VOA Mandarin.

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