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ຄວາມ​ບໍ່​ແນ່ນອນ ທີ່​ເກີດ​ຈາກ ​ການ​ປ​ະ​ເຊີນ​ໜ້າ ດ້ານ​ການ​ຄ້າ ລະ​ຫວ່າງ ສ​ຫລ ກັບ​ ຈີນ


ໂຄ​ສົກ​ກະ​ຊວງ​ການ​ຄ້າ​ຂອງ​ຈີນ ທ່ານ​ກາວ ເຟັງ ພວມ​ຕອບ​ຄຳ​ຖາມ​ນັກ​ຂ່າວ ທີ່​ກະ​ຊວງ​ການ​ຄ້າ​ຈີນ ໃນ​ນະ​ຄອນ​ຫຼວງ​ປັກ​ກິ່ງ ເມື່ອ​ວັນ​ທີ 6 ເມ​ສາ 2018.

ໃນ​ຂະ​ນະ​ທີ່​ສະ​ຫະ​ລັດແລະ​ຈີນ ຍັງ​ສືບ​ຕໍ່​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນ​ໜ້າ​ທາງ​ດ້ານ​ການ​ຄ້າ​ ຊຶ່ງໄດ້​ຂະ​ຫຍາຍ​ວົງ​ກວ້າງ​ອອກ ຈ​າກ​ເລື້ອງ​ຊັບ​ສິນ​ທາງ​ດ້ານ​ສະ​ຕິ​ປັນ​ຍາ​ແລະ​ການເຂົ້າ​ເຖິງ​ຕະ​ຫຼາດ ໄປ​ຮວມ​ເອົາ​ບັນ​ຫາທາງ​ດ້ານ​ຄວາມ​ໝັ້ນ​ຄົງ​ແຫ່ງ​ຊາດນຳ​ແລ້ວ ທຸ​ລະ​ກິດ​ຕ່າງໆ​ຢູ່​ໃນ​ທົ່ວ​ໂລກ ຕ່າງ​ກໍ​ພົບ​ວ່າ ສິ່ງ​ທີ່​ແນ່ນອນ​ທີ່​ສຸດ​ໃນ​ເວ​ລານີ້ ​ກໍ​ຄືມີ​ຄວາມ​ບໍ່​ແນ່ນອນ​ຫຼາຍ​ຂຶ້ນ.

​ອາ​ທິດ​ແລ້ວນີ້ ແມ່ນ​ເຕັມ​ໄປ​ດ້ວຍ​ຂ່າວ​ ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ ​ທີ່​ບໍ່​ແນ່ນອນ ແລະບາງ​ຄັ້ງ​ບາງ​ຄາວ ກໍ​ມີ​ຖະ​ແຫຼງ​ການ​ທີ່​ຂັດ​ແຍ້ງ​ກັນ​ ຈາກ​ພວກ​ເຈົ້າ​ໜ້າ​ທີ​ຂອງ​ທຳ​ນຽບ​ຂາວ ແລະ​ເຮັດ​ໃຫ້​ທຸ​ລະ​ກິດ​ຕ່າງໆ​ຕົກ​ຢູ່​ໃນ​ທ່າມ​ກາງ​ສະ​ພາບຄວາມ​ງົງ​ງວຍ.

ແລະ​ຄວາມ​ຫວັງ​ທີ່ວ່າ ການ​ພົບ​ປະ​ກັນລະ​ຫວ່າງ​ປະ​ທາ​ນາ​ທິ​ບໍ​ດີ​ສະ​ຫະ​ລັດ​ທ່ານ​ດໍ​ໂນ​ລ ທ​ຣຳ ແລະປະ​ທານ​ປະ​ເທດ​ຈີນ ທ່ານ​ສີ ຈິ້ງ​ຜິງ ຢູ່​ຂ້າງນອກກອງປະ​ຊຸມ​ ສຸດຍອດ​ຂອງ​ກຸ່ມ​ຈີ 20 ໃນ​ເດືອນ​ໜ້າ ທີ່​ອາດ​ພາ​ໃຫ້​ ມີ​ການ​ແກ້​ໄຂ​ ບັນ​ຫາຂັ​ດ​ແຍ້ງ​ໃນ​ເລື້ອງ​ການ​ຄ້ານັ້ນ ໄດ້​ຖືກ​ທຳ​ລາຍ​ ໃນ​ວັນ​ພະ​ຫັດ​ຜ່ານ​ມາໂດຍ​ໂຄ​ສົກ​ກະຊວງ​ການ​ຄ້າ​ຈີນ ທ່ານ​ກາວ ເຟັງ ທີ່​ເວົ້າ​ວ່າ ອີງ​ຕາມ​ການ​ແປ​ຂອງ​ໂທ​ລະ​ພາບ CNBC ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ຄວາມ​ເຫັນ​ ທີ່​ກ່າວ​ເປັນ​ພາ​ສາ​ຈີນ​ກາງນັ້ນ “ຖ້າ​ສະ​ຫະ​ລັດ​ຢາກຈະ​ສືບ​ຕໍ່​ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ແລ້ວ ສະ​ຫະ​ລັດ​ກໍ​ຄວນ ປັບ​ໂຕດ້ວຍ​ຄວາມ​ຈິງ​ໃຈ ກ່ຽວກັບ​ການ​ກະ​ທຳ​ຜິດ​ຂອງ​ຕົນ ຫຼັງ​ຈາກນັ້ນ ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ຈຶ່ງ​ຈະ​ດຳ​ເນີນ​ຕໍ່​ໄປ​ໄດ້.”

ທ່ານ​ກ່າວ​ຕື່ມ​ວ່າ “ສະ​ຫະ​ລັດ… ໄດ້​ລົງ​ໂທດ​ບໍ​ລິ​ສັດ​ຕ່າງໆ​ຂອງ​ຈີນ ຊຶ່ງ​ບໍ່​ພຽງແຕ່​ໄດ້​ສ້າງ​ຄວາມ​ເສຍ​ຫາຍ​ຮ້າຍ​ແຮງ​ ຕໍ່​ການ​ຮ່ວມ​ມື​ທາງ​ດ້ານ​ການ​ຄ້າ​ແບບ​ປົກກະ​ຕິ ລະ​ຫວ່າງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ທັງ​ສອງ​ເທົ່າ​ນັ້ນ ແຕ່​ຍັງ​ໄດ້​ກໍ່​ໃຫ້​ເກີດ​ໄພ​ຂົ່ມ​ຂູ່​ອັນ​ໃຫຍ່ຫຼວງ​ຕໍ່​ຄວາມ​ໝັ້ນ​ຄົງຂອງ​ອຸດ​ສາ​ຫະ​ກຳ​ໂລກ​ແລະ​ຕ່ອງ​ໂສ້​ອຸບ​ປະ​ທານ​ນຳ​ດ້ວຍ. ຈີ​ນ​ແມ່ນ​ຄັດ​ຄ້ານ​ຢ່າງ​ແຂງ​ຂັນ​ຕໍ່​ເລື້ອງ​ນີ້. ພວກ​ເຮົາຈະ​ຕິດ​ຕາມ ​ສິ້ງ​ຊອມ​ເບິ່ງ​ການເຄື່ອນ​ໄຫວ​ດັ່ງ​ກ່າວ​ຢ່າງ​ໃກ້​ຊິດ ແລະ​ທຳ​ການ​ກະ​ກຽມ​ຢ່າງ​ພຽງ​ພໍ​.”

ບໍ​ລິ​ສັດ​ຕ່າງໆ ​ກໍ​ມີ​ຄວາມ​ກະ​ຕື​ລື​ລົ້ນ ທີ່​ຈະ “ເຮັດ​ການ​ກະ​ກຽມ​ຢ່າງ​ພຽງ​ພໍ” ແຕ່​ກໍ​ຍັງ​ບໍ່​ແນ່​ໃຈ​ວ່າ ພວກ​ເຂົາ​ເຈົ້າ​ຄວນ​ເຮັດ​ຫຍັງ ໃນ​ເມື່ອ​ວ່າ ​ມີ​ການ​ປ່ຽນ​ແປງ​ຢູ່​ເລື້ອຍ​ໆ ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ການ​ຕໍ່​ສູ້​ກັນ ​ໃນ​ລະ​ດັບ​ສູງລະ​ຫວ່າງ​ສອງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ທີ່​ມີ​ເສດ​ຖະ​ກິດ​ໃຫຍ່​ສຸດໃນ​ໂລກ.

As the U.S. and China continue their standoff on trade, which has expanded from a dispute over intellectual property and market access to encompass key national security issues, businesses worldwide are finding that the only thing that seems certain is more uncertainty.

The last weeks have been filled with on-again off-again negotiations, competing and sometimes conflicting statements from White House officials, and a general state of confusion for businesses caught in the middle.

And hopes that a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of next month's G-20 meeting might lead to resolution of the trade conflict were torpedoed on Thursday by Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng, who said, according to a CNBC translation of remarks delivered in Mandarin, "If the U.S. would like to keep on negotiating it should, with sincerity, adjust its wrong actions. Only then can talks continue."

He added, "The U.S. ... crackdown on Chinese companies not only seriously damages the normal commercial cooperation between both countries, but it also forms a great threat to the security of the global industrial and supply chain. China is firmly opposed to this. We will closely monitor developments and make adequate preparations."

Google Flip-Flops Signal Corporate Uncertainty

Companies are also eager to make "adequate preparations" but it remains unclear what they should do, given the constantly shifting state of play in the high-stakes fight between the world's two biggest economies.

For example, an announcement from the Trump administration that it would ban the sale of high-tech equipment to Chinese telecom giant Huawei last week led to a statement from Google that it would stop supplying its Android operating system to the company for use in its smartphones, a move that could cripple Huawei's phone business. Days later the Trump administration announced a 90-day reprieve, forcing Google to modify its original statement to indicate that it will do limited work with Huawei until then.

In the following days, Microsoft, which supplies some of Huawei's business operations, and ARM Holdings, which supplies microchip technology vital to the firm's large smartphone business, have also said that they will stop doing business with the Chinese company.

But on Thursday, comments from President Trump raised questions about whether that will be necessary after all, and negotiators could work out some deal in the trade talks that would address U.S. security concerns.

For weeks, administration officials have tried hard to draw a distinction between sanctions imposed in the interests of national security, and those meant to address what the United States sees as China's unfair trade practices. Blocking U.S. companies from doing business with Huawei, they have insisted, is an example of the former.

However on Thursday, and not for the first time, Trump publicly connected the Huawei ban with the broader trade war in a White House press conference.

He described the company as being dangerous to U.S. interests from "a security standpoint, a military standpoint," but then added, "It's possible that Huawei would be included in a trade deal. If we made a deal, I can imagine Huawei being included in some form or some part of a trade deal."

Tech Bans Beyond Huawei?

At the same time that it suggests a deal could be struck on Huawei, the Trump administration has also signaled that it will be broadening the ban on technology sales well beyond Huawei, with an executive order signed on May 15.

The language of the order makes it clear that the prohibitions could be extensive, but details are lacking, leaving businesses unsure of exactly what will be affected. The order gives the relevant federal agencies 150 days to come up with rules that would implement it.

The resulting uncertainty about the future of trade and business relations between the U.S. and China is having real consequences for U.S. firms. Google, for example, has seen the share price of its parent company, Alphabet, tumble by more than 10% in the past month. Other firms that count Huawei as a major customer, including Broadcom, Qualcomm, Seagate Technology, and Corning have also suffered significant declines in the markets.

The trade fight has also had ramifications well beyond the telecommunications sector.

Among the many U.S. companies that have made big bets on China over the past several years, few better highlight the perceived opportunity of melding American technological innovation and Chinese manufacturing capacity than Tesla Motors. The electric car maker, founded by the Silicon Valley billionaire Elon Musk, invested heavily in China-based production facilities, including a massive 9.3 million square foot "Gigafactory" in Shanghai.

And now, with Washington and Beijing locked in a trade war that does not seem likely to end in the foreseeable future, Tesla is a shining example of a different kind, symbolizing the confusion and concern about the future that escalating threats of reciprocal tariffs have created.

This week shares in the company continued a month-long slide as analyst Gene Munster, the managing partner of Loup Ventures, warned about the uncertainty surrounding Tesla's future in China. Currently the largest market for electric vehicles in the world, China was expected to account for 25% of the carmaker's annual sales this year, a number Munster downgraded to 17% in the face of potential tariffs and other challenges stemming from the trade war.

"We are lowering our numbers as a precautionary measure related to two unknowns," Munster wrote. "First, we are now factoring in that Tesla deliveries will be impacted by tariffs entering China. Second, non-tariff factors that will impact China demand include Chinese consumers boycotting Tesla and Chinese officials adding complexity to the delivery process."

However, he conceded, the situation remains unclear. While it is possible that Tesla will be harmed by the trade war, other analysts believe that the company's investment in the Shanghai factory, which only started construction in December, will cause the government in Beijing to create exemptions for the company.

If there is anything markets hate, though, it's uncertainty. And the possibility that Beijing will give Tesla a break despite its ongoing trade dispute with the Trump administration has not been enough to calm the fears of investors.

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