ລິ້ງ ສຳຫລັບເຂົ້າຫາ

ອັງກາຣາ ຂົ່ມຂູ່ ທີ່ຈະລົງໂທດ ຕໍ່ຊາວເຄີດ ໃນອີຣັກ ກ່ຽວກັບ ການລົງປະຊາມະຕິ


ນາຍົກລັດທະມົນຕີເທີກີ ທ່ານ Binali Yildirim.

ນາຍົກລັດຖະມົນຕີ​ເທີ​ກີ ທ່ານ Binaili Yildirim ​ໄດ້​ເຕືອນໃນ​ວັນ​ສຸກ​ວານ​ນີ້​ວ່າ ​ແຜນ
ການ​ຂອງ​ຊາວ​ເຄີ​ດ​ໃນອີ​ຣັກ​ ​ທີ່​ຈະຈັດການລົງປະຊາ​ມະຕິ ເພື່ອ​ຄວາມ​ເປັນ​ເອກ​ກະ
ລາດນັ້ນ​ ແມ່ນ “ຄວາມ​ຜິດພາດ ຮ້າຍ​ແຮງ​ທີ່​ສຸດ.” ປະທານ​າທິບໍດີ​ເຂດ​Kurdistan ​
ຂອງ​ຊາວ​ເຄີ​ດ​ ໃນ​ອີຣັກ ທ່ານ Masoud Barzani ​ໄດ້​ຮຽກໃຫ້​ມີ​ການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະ​ຕິ
ດັ່ງກ່າວ​ໃນ​ວັນ​ທີ 25 ເດືອນກັນ​ຍາ​ນີ້ ຢູ່​ທີ່​ເຂດ​ເຄິ່ງ​ປົກຄອງ​ຕົນ​.

​ເທີ​ກີ ຊຶ່ງມີ​ຊາຍ​ແດນ​ຕິກ​ກັບ​ເຂດ Kurdistan ຂອງ​ອີຣັກ​ ມີ​ສຳພັນທີ່​ເຂັ້ມ​ແຂງ​ກັບທ່ານ Barzani ​ແຕ່​ວ່າ Ankara ​ໄດ້​ເພີ້​ມຄວາມກົດ​ດັນ ຮຽກ​ຮ້ອງ​ໃຫ້​ຍົກ ​ເລີກ​ການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ
​ມະຕິ​ດັ່ງກ່າວ. ​ຍັງອີກ 10 ມື້​ເທົ່າ​ນັ້ນກໍ​ຈະ​ມີ​ການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະຕິ​ແລ້ວ. ​ເພາະສະ​ນັ້ນ
ຂ້າພະ​ເຈົ້າ​ຢາກ​ເວົ້າ​ຊໍ້າ​ອີກ​ ໃນ​ນາມ​ເພື່ອນ​ມິດ ​ຂອງ​ທ່ານ Masoud Barzani ​ໃຫ້​ແກ້
​ໄຂ​ຄວາມ​ຜິດພາດ​ດັ່ງກ່າວ​ໃນ​ຂະນະ​ທີ່​ຍັງ​ມີ​ເວລາ​ເຫຼືອ​ຢູ່.” ທ່ານ Yildirim ກ່າວໃນ​ວັນ
​ສຸກ​ວານນີ້​ຕໍ່​ບັນດາ​ຜູ້​ສະໜັບສະໜູນ. ການ​ເຕືອນ​ໄດ້ມີ​ຂຶ້ນຫລັງ​ຈາກ​ການ​ຂົ່ມຂູ່​ຂອງ
Ankara. ທ່ານ Yildirim ກ່າ​ວ ເພີ້​ມວ່າ “ພວກ​ເຮົາ​ບໍ່​ຢາກ​ທຳ​ການ​ລົງ​ໂທດ ​ແຕ່​ວ່າ ຖ້າ
​ຫາກ​ພວກ​ເຮົາ​ມາ​ຮອດ​ຈຸດ​ນັ້ນ ມີ​ຫລາຍ​ຂັ້ນ​ຕອນ ​ທີ່​ໄດ້​ວາງ​ແຜນ​ໄວ້​ແລ້ວ ທີ່​ເທີ​ກີ
​ຈະ​ເຮັດ.”

ການ​ເຕືອນ​ມີຂື້ນ​ຫຼາຍມື້ ​ຫລັງ​ຈາກລັດຖະມົນຕີ​ຕ່າງປະ​ເທດ​ເທີ​ກີ ທ່ານ Mevlut
Cavusoglu ​ໄດ້​ກ່າວ​ຕໍ່​ຊາວເຄີ​ດວ່າ ​ເຂົາ​ເຈົ້າຈະ “ມີ​ບັນຫາ​ກັບການ​ລົງ​ຄະ​ແນນ​ສຽງ.”
Ankara ພ້ອມ​ດ້ວຍເຂດຂອງ​ຊາວເຄີ​ດກຸ່ມ​ນ້ອຍທີ່​ວຸ້ນວາຍ ທີ່​ມີ ຊາຍ​ແດນຕິດ​ກັບ​ເຂດ Kurdistan ​ໃນອີຣັກ​ ຢ້ານ​ກົວ​ວ່າ ປະ​ເທດເອກ​ກະລາດ​ຂອງ​ຊາວເຄີ​ດ ອາດ​ຊຸກຍູ້​ໃຫ້​ມີ​ການຮຽກຮ້ອງ​ແຍກ​ດິນ​ແດນ. ຄວາມ​ຢ້ານ​ກົວ​ດັ່ງ ກ່າວ​ໄດ້​ມີ​ເພີ້ມຂຶ້ນ ຍ້ອນສົງ​ໄສ​ວ່າ
ຊາວ​ເຄີ​ດ​ໃນຊີ​ເຣຍ​ທີ່ຢູ່​ທາງ​ຊາຍ​ແດນ​ເທີ​ກີມີ ​ຄວາມ​ກະຕືລື​ລົ້ນ​ຢາກ​ເປັນ​ເອກ​ກະລາດ​
ເຊັ່ນ​ດຽວ​ກັນ.

ຖ້າຫາກການລົງປະຊາມະຕິຂອງຊາວເຄີດຜ່ານ ໃນວນທີ 25 ພວກຊາວເມືອງເຂດເຄິ່ງປົກຄອງຕົນເອງ ຄາດວ່າຈະລົງຄະແນນສຽງຮັບຮູ້ເອົາ.
ຖ້າຫາກການລົງປະຊາມະຕິຂອງຊາວເຄີດຜ່ານ ໃນວນທີ 25 ພວກຊາວເມືອງເຂດເຄິ່ງປົກຄອງຕົນເອງ ຄາດວ່າຈະລົງຄະແນນສຽງຮັບຮູ້ເອົາ.

ເທີ​ກີ​ຢ້ານກົວວ່າ ​ການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະຕິຈະ​ສ້າງບັນຫາ​ດຽວ​ກັນ​ຢູ່​ທົ່ວ​ປະ​ເທດ ກ່ຽວກັບ​ການ
ແບ່ງ​ແຍກທາງການ​ເມືອງ ທີ່​ເລິ​ກ​ແລບ. ທ່ານ Ceyda Karen ນັກ​ຂ່າວ​ຂອງ​ຝ່າ​ຍຄ້ານ
​ເທີ​ກີປະຈຳໜັງສືພິມ Cumhuriyal ກ່າວ​ວ່າ “ການນຳ​ເອົາແຜນການ​ຢູ່​ເຂດ Balkan
ມາ​ໃຊ້​ໃນ​ຕາ​ເວັນ​ອອກາງ ຈະນຳ​ໄປສູ່​ຄວາມ​ບໍ່​ມີ​ສະ ຖຽນ​ລະ​ພາບ​.” ບັນ​ດາ​ຊາຍ​ແດນ​ບໍ່
​ໄດ້ຂີດ​ເສັ້ນ​ແບ່ງປັນ​ຢ່າງທ່ຽງ​ທຳຢູ່ໃນ​ຫລາຍໆ​ພາ​ກສ່ວນ​ຂອງ​ໂລກ. ຄຳ​ຖາມກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ວ່າ ຈະຊອກ​ຫາຄວາມທ່ຽ​ງທຳຢູ່​ບ່ອນ​ໃດ ​ເພື່ອ​ແຕ້ມ​ແຜນ​ທີ່ຄືນ​ໃໝ່ນັ້ນ ຍັງບໍ່​ເປັນ​ທີ່​ຮູ້​ໄດ້.”

ສະຫະລັດ​ໄດ້ອອກສຽງ​ຄັດຄ້ານ​ຢ່າ​ງແຮງ​ຕໍ່​ການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະຕິ​ເພື່ອ​ຄວາມເປັນ​ເອກ​ກ​ະ
ລາດ. ​ໃນ​ວັນ​ສຸກ​ວານ​ນີ້​ ທຳນຽບຂາວ​ໄດ້​ອອກຖະ​ແຫລ​ງການກ່າວ​ວ່າ ສະຫະລັດ “ບໍ່ໃຫ້
ການ​ສະໜັບສະໜູນ" ​ຕໍ່ແຜນການ​ຂອງ​ຊາວເຄີ​ດທີ່​ຈະຈັດການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະຕິ ​ໂດຍ​ກ່າວ
​ວ່າ​ ແຜນການ​ນີ້ “​ເປັນ​ທີ່​ລົບ​ກວນ​ຕໍ່​ຄວາມ​ພະຍາຍາມ​ທີ່​ຈະ​ເອົາ​ຊະນະກຸ່ມ ISIS ​ແລະ
​ເຮັດ​ໃຫ້​ບັນດາ​ເຂດ​ປົດ​ປ່ອຍ ​ມີ​ຄວາ​ມທຸ່ນ​ທ່ຽງ.” ​ຍິ່ງ​ໄປ​ກວ່າ​ນັ້ນຖ​ະ​ແຫຼງການຍັງ​ກ່າວວ່າ
“​ການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະຕິຢູ່​ໃນ​ເຂດ​ທີ່​ມີ​ການ​ຂັດແຍ້​ງກັນ ​ໂດຍ​ສະ​ເພາະແລ້ວ ​ແມ່ນ​ເປັນ​ການ
​ທ້າ​ທາຍ​ແລະກໍ່​ໃຫ້​ເກີດ​ຄວາມ ບໍ່​ທຸ່ນ​ທ່ຽງ.”

ປ້າຍຢູ່ນອກຮ້ານຄ້າທົ່ວໄປ Erbil ຮຽກຮ້ອງໃຫ້ປະຊາຊົນປ່ອນບັດຮັບເອົາ ການລົງປະຊາມະຕິ ເປັນເອອກະລາດ ໃນວັນທີ 5 ກັນຍາ 2017.
ປ້າຍຢູ່ນອກຮ້ານຄ້າທົ່ວໄປ Erbil ຮຽກຮ້ອງໃຫ້ປະຊາຊົນປ່ອນບັດຮັບເອົາ ການລົງປະຊາມະຕິ ເປັນເອອກະລາດ ໃນວັນທີ 5 ກັນຍາ 2017.

ລັດຖະບານ​ທ່ານ​ທຣໍາ ຮຽກຮ້ອງ​ໃຫ້​ຊາວເຄີ​ດຍົກ​ເລີກການ​ລົງ​ປະຊາ​ມະຕິ ແລະ ​ທຳ​ການ
​ພົວພັນ “ຢ່າງ​ຈິງ​ຈັງແລະ​ເປີດ​ການ​ສົນທະນາແບບ​ຍືນ​ຍົງກັບແບັກ​ແດດ" ​ແທນ ຊຶ່ງ​ສະຫະ
ລັດ​ໄດ້​ສະເໜີ​ຈະ​ຊ່ວຍເປັນ​ຜູ້​ໄກ່​ເກ່ຍ.

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim warned Friday that the Iraqi Kurdish plan to hold an independence referendum was a "grave mistake." Iraqi Kurdistan regional President Masoud Barzani has called for the referendum on September 25 in the semi-autonomous area.

Turkey, which borders the Iraqi Kurdish region, has strong ties with Barzani, but Ankara has been stepping up its pressure to call off the vote. "There are 10 days left ((to the referendum)). Therefore, I want to repeat our friendly call to Masoud Barzani: Correct this mistake while there is still time," Yildirim said Friday to supporters. The warning was followed by Ankara's first direct threat. "We don't want to impose sanctions, but, if we arrive at that point, there are steps that have been already planned that Turkey can take," Yildirim added.

The warning comes days after the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, told the Kurds that they would "pay a price for the vote." Ankara, with its own restive Kurdish minority, that mainly borders Iraqi Kurdistan, fears an independent Kurdish state could fuel similar secessionist demands. Those fears are heightened by the suspicion that Syrian Kurds on the Turkish border harbor the same independence ambitions.

Turkish fears over the referendum have created rare common ground across the country's deep political divide. "Balkanization of the Middle East would bring instability," warned Ceyda Karan, a columnist with the Turkish opposition Cumhuriyet newspaper. "Borders are not drawn fairly in many parts of the world. The question of where to find fairness in redrawing them is unknown."

The United States has voiced strong opposition to the independence vote. On Friday the White House released a statement saying the United States "does not support" the Kurdish plan to hold a referendum, saying the plan "is distracting from efforts to defeat ISIS and stabilize the liberated areas." Further, it says, "Holding the referendum in disputed areas is particularly provocative and destabilizing."

The Trump administration is calling on the Kurds to cancel the referendum and instead engage in "serious and sustained dialogue with Baghdad," which the U.S. has offered to facilitate.

Iran has also registered its opposition to the referendum, but Turkey arguably has the most leverage on the Iraqi Kurds. The Habur border gate on Turkey's frontier with Iraq is the main trade route to the outside world for Iraqi Kurdistan, while an oil pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan provides a financial lifeline.

Sanctions could prove to be a double edged sword. "Habur does not only mean gate to Iraqi Kurdistan," points out former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who set up Turkey's consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan's capital of Irbil. "Habur means gate to Iraq and in today's terms means gate to the Middle East as all border gates are closed with Syria. There is the oil pipeline; Iraqi Kurdistan oil, including Kirkuk oil, is being marketed to global markets through ((the port city of)) Ceyhan. That is a win, win for Ankara," Selcen added.

Financial considerations are not the only factors that Ankara has to consider. "Ankara is against it ((the referendum)) but on the other hand, Barzani is the best ally in the region. I think they are not that vocal when it comes to the referendum," says political scientist Cengiz Aktar. Barzani in the past decade has developed a close relationship with Ankara, one built not only on lucrative trade, but on security cooperation.

Barzani has provided assistance to Ankara in Turkey's war against the Kurdish rebel group the PKK, which is waging a decades-long insurgency for greater minority rights in Turkey and has bases in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkish election politics could further restrict Ankara's room to maneuver. The Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum threatens to complicate Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's re-election bid in 2019. "I understand Mr. Erdogan is trying to balance the traditional Kurdish vote that goes with ((Erdogan's)) AK Party and ((Turkish)) nationalists," points out former diplomat Selcen, who is now a regional analyst. The Kurdish vote in Turkey traditionally accounts for about 10 percent of Erdogan's support, votes that could be crucial in what is predicted to be a closely fought presidential election.

Analyst Selcen suggests the solution to the political conundrum posed by the Iraqi Kurdish independence vote to Erdogan's own ambitions could be to simply do nothing. "I think in today's system in Turkey, one should only follow closely what Mr Erdogan says, and, knowing his usual style and usual rhetoric, I find Mr. Erdogan's position much milder and more moderate. I will speculate that following September 25, the day of the referendum, it will be business as usual between Ankara and Irbil."

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