ລິ້ງ ສຳຫລັບເຂົ້າຫາ

ທະນາຄານ AIIB ຊ່ອຍໂຄງການເສັ້ນທາງ ສາຍໄໝ ແຕ່ອາດບໍ່ປົກປ້ອງຈີນ ຈາກທ່ານ Trump


ທະນາຄານ​​ການ​ລົງທຶນ​ໃນ​ດ້ານໂຄງ​ລ່າງ​ເອ​ເຊຍທີ່​ເອີ້ນຫຍໍ້​ວ່າ AIIB ທີ່ມອງເຫັນຢູ່ສຳໜັກງານໃຫຍ່ ທີ່ປັກກິ່ງ, 17 ມັງກອນ, 2016.

ບັນດາທະນາຄານ​ລະຫວ່າງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ ທີ່​ມີ​ສຳນັກງານ​ຢູ່​ຈີນ ​ໄດ້​ປະຕິ​ເສດຢ່າງ​ເປັນການ​ເປີດເຜີຍ​ທີ່​ຈະ​ເຊື່ອຟັງ​ພວກ​ຕ້ອງ​ຕິ​ໃນ​ຮອບ​ປີ​ທີ່ຜ່ານ​ມາໂດຍ​ມີ​ແຜນການ​ປະຕິບັດ​ງານ ​ຢ່າງ​ແຂງຂັນ ທີ່​ຮວມທັງ​ໂຄງການ ​ດ້ານ​ການ​ເງິນ​ຢູ່​ໃນ​ສິບ​ກວ່າ​ປະ​ເທດ.

ທະນາຄານ​ໃໝ່ ຄື​ທະນາຄານ​ການ​ລົງທຶນ​ໃນ​ດ້ານໂຄງ​ລ່າງ​ເອ​ເຊຍທີ່​ເອີ້ນຫຍໍ້​ວ່າ AIIB ​ແລະ​ທະນາຄານ​ພັດທະນາ​ໃໝ່ ຫຼື NDB ​ໄດ້​ເຮັດ​ໃຫ້​ຈີນມີ​ຄວາມ​ຖືກຕ້ອງ​ຊອບທຳ​ທາງ ດ້ານ​ການ​ເມືອງ​ຕື່ມ​ ແລະ​ຊ່ອຍ​ຊຸກຍູ້​ຜົນ​ປະ​ໂຫຍ​ດທາງ​ດ້ານ​ພູມ​ສາດ​ການເມືອງ​ ຂອງ​ ປັກກິ່ງ ​ໂດຍ​ໃຫ້​ເງິນ​ກູ້​ຢືມ 3 ຕື້​ໂດ​ລາ ​ແກ່​ໂຄງການ​ຕ່າງໆ ທີ່ຢູ່ພາຍ​ໃຕ້​ແຜນການນຶ່ງ​ສາຍພານ​ ນຶ່ງ​ຖະໜົນຂອງ​ຕົນ ​ນັ້ນຄື​ຄຳ​ເວົ້າ ຂອງ​ພວກ​ນັກວິ​ເຄາະ.

​ແຕ່​ກໍ​ມີ​ການ​ຕັ້ງຄຳ​ຖາມ​ຂຶ້ນມາ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ວ່າ​ທະນາຄານ​ເຫລົ່ານີ້ສາມາດ​ຊ່ອຍ​ຈີນ​ໄດ້​ຫລື​ບໍ່​ໃນການ​ຕໍ່ສູ້​ກັບ​ການ​ກະທຳ​ທີ່​ເປັນ​ຜົນ​ຮ້າຍ ທີ່​ຂົ່ມຂູ່​ໂດຍ​ປະທານາທິບໍດີ​ສະຫະລັດ ທ່ານ ​ດໍໂນ​ລ ທຣຳ.

ຫົວໜ້າ​ຂອງ​ທະນາຄານ AIIB ທ່ານ Jin Liqun​ ໄດ້​ເຕືອນ​ວໍ​ຊິງ​ຕັນ​ເມື່ອ​ໄວໆ​ມານີ້ວ່າປະ ຕູ​ແມ່ນ​ຍັງ​ເປີດ​ກວ້າງ​ຢູ່​ເພື່ອ​ໃຫ້​ສະຫະລັດ​ເຂົ້າຮ່ວມ​ທະນາຄານ​ດັ່ງກ່າວ. ລັດຖະບານ
​ທ່ານ​ໂອ​ບາ​ມາ ​ໄດ້​ຕັດສິນ​ໃຈ ​ບໍ່​ຍອມ​ເຂົ້າຮ່ວມ ​ທະນາຄານ AIIB ​ເຖິງ​ແມ່ນ​ວ່າ​ໄດ້​ມີ
56 ປະ​ເທດ ຮວມທັງ​ພັນທະ​ມິດ​ຂອງ​ສະຫະລັດ ​ເຊັ່ນ ກາ​ນາ​ດາ ​ແລະ​ອອສ​ເຕຣ​ເລຍ ​
ເຂົ້າຮ່ວມ​ເປັນ​ສະມາຊິກ​ແລ້ວ​ກໍ​ຕາມ.

ທ່ານ Jacob Kirkeraard ​ເຈົ້າໜ້າທີ່ອະ​ວຸ​ໂສ ຢູ່​ທີ່​ສະ​ຖາ​ບັນ​ເສດຖະກິດ​ນາໆ​ຊາດ
Peterson ກ່າວ​ຕໍ່​ວີ​ໂອ​ເອວ່າ “ທະນາຄານ AIIB ​ເປັນ​ສະ​ຖາ​ບັນ​ທີ່​ຈະ ຊ່ອຍ​ຈີນ
​ເພື່ອ​ໃຫ້​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ຄວາ​ມສະໜັບສະໜຸນ​ຈາກ​ປະ​ເທດ​ອື່ນໆໃນ​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນໜ້າ​
ໂດຍ​ກົງ​ກັບ​ທ່ານ​ທຣຳ. ການ​ຕັ້ງທະນາຄານ AIIB ​ແລະ​ສະ​ແດງ​ໃຫ້​ເຫັນ​ວ່າ ປັກ​ກິ່ງ
​ມີ​ຄວາມ​ຕັ້ງ​ໃຈ​ທີ່​ຈະ​ຫຼິ້ນບົດບາດໂດຍ​ການ​ຕັ້ງກົດ​ລະບຽບ​ຕ່າງໆ​ແມ່ນ​ຊ່ອຍ​ຈີນ ​
ເວລາ​ທ່ານ​ທຣຳຊຶ່ງ​ເບິ່ງ​ຄືວ່າ ຈະ​ດຳ​ເນີນ​ການ​ ທີ່​ຜິດແປກ​ໄປ​|ຈາກ ບໍ່​ພຽງ​ແຕ່ ​
ໃນ​ບົດບາດ​ທີ່​ອາ​ເມຣິກາ​ເຄີຍ​ເຮັດ​ມາ​ເທົ່າ​ນັ້ນ ​ແຕ່​ຍັງ​ຮວມທັງ​ລະບຽບ​ການ​ນາໆ
ຊາດ​ອີກ​ຫຼາຍຢ່າງທີ່​ຕົນ​ຊ່ອຍ​ຕັ້ງຂຶ້ນມາ.”

​ທ່ານ​ກ່າວ​ວ່າ ແຕ່​ການ​ໄດ້​ປຽບ​ສ່ວນ​ໃຫຍ່​ແລ້ວ ​ແມ່ນ​ຈະ​ເປັນ​ໃນ​ດ້ານ​ການ​ທູດ​ແລະ​
ໃນດ້ານການ​ເມືອງ ​ໂດຍ​ກ່າວ​ຕື່ມ​ວ່າ ທະນາຄານ AIIB ຈະ​ບໍ່​ສະໜອງ​ຈີນ ​ໃນ​ການ​
ໄດ້​ປຽບ​ທາງ​ດ້ານ​ເສດຖະກິດ​ທີ່​ສະ​ເພາະ​ເຈາະ​ຈົງ​ໃດ​ນຶ່ງໃນ​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນໜ້າ​ສອງ​
ຝ່າຍ​ກັບ​ທ່ານ​ທຣຳ.

Multilateral banks based in China have defied critics over the past yearwith strong performances that include financing projects across a dozen countries.

The newbanks, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and New Development Bank (NDB), have given added political legitimacy to China, and helped to push forward Beijing's geopolitical interests by extending $3 billion forprojects under its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) program, analysts said.

But questions are being asked about whether these banks can help China in its battle against adverse actions threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump.

AIIB'shead Jin Liqun recently reminded Washington that that door remains open for it to join the bank. The Obama administration had decided against joining the AIIB even after 56 countries, including U.S. allies like Canada, Britain and Australia, became members.

"AIIB is an institution that will help China get support from other countries in any direct confrontation with Trump,"JacobKirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics told VOA."Setting up AIIB and showing that Beijing intends to play by the established rules has helped China, when Trump increasingly seems to be going rogue on not just America's traditional role, but also many of the international rules it help set up."

But the advantage will mostly be in diplomatic and political terms, he said, adding theAIIB will not provide China any particular economic advantage in a bilateral confrontation with Trump.

"China has gained in terms of soft power because it could bring several European powers on the table through AIIB. At present,alot of European countries are concerned about what they see in the U.S.. This might increase potential cooperation between China and the European countries,"said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist for Capital Economics.

AIIB's latest decision to lend $600 million forthe Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP), which will connect Azerbaijan to Europe fits snuggly into China's plans to connect with Europe through Central Asia. Most of the other projects funded by the Beijing based bank support OBOR projects. They includethe Dushanbe-Uzbekistan Border Road in Tajikistan, $100 million for National Motorway M-4 in Pakistan,$300 millionfor a hydropower project in Pakistan, and $301 millionforDuqm Port in Oman.

U.S. Membership


In a recent interview, AIIB chief Jin predicted that the U.S. under Trump would reject the decision of the Obama administration and choose to join the bank.

"I was told that many in his (Trump's) team have an opinion that Obama was not right not to join the AIIB, especially after Canada joined, which was a very loud endorsement of the bank. So we can't rule out the new government in the U.S. endorsing the AIIB or indicating interest to join as member," he told the Chinese media.

He also complained that AIIB faced initiatial resistance from the U.S."At the formation of the AIIB, the U.S., the base of the Bretton Wood Institutes that manage the world economy including the World Bank and the IMF, saw the new body as a threat to its dominance and importance in the world economic order," he said.

The Trump administration has not yet commented on the AIIB and analysts are skeptical that Trump will let the U.S. join and give the Beijing-based institution some added credibility.

"Under no circumstances will Trump agree to join AIIB. Jin obviously knows that and cleverly created a headline again highlighting how it is now the U.S. that is isolating itself from the rest of the world," Kirkegaard said.

Lourdes S. Casanova, academic director of the Emerging Markets Institute at Cornell University, also thinks the U.S. will stay out of it.

" I don't believe the new administration one will join because, so far, they want to retreat back home and focus on investments in infrastructure at home.You also need the political will and on that front, President Trump has been more confrontational with Mexico and also with China, as well as critical of multilateral organizations, which makes us believe that he has no intention to join AIIB," she said.



What next?

AIIB may seem to have turned up a stellar performance lending $1.7 billion to nine different projects in just more than one year. But it has been taking advantage of projects that had been carefully studied and vetted by entrenched players like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. The real challenge comes now, when many of the bankable projects have been covered, and the AIIB will have to start doing its own due diligence, analysts said.

"The AIIB will find it very difficult to scale up its operations. There are significant political risks in many of the infrastructure projects,"Evans-Pritchard said. "A lot ofprojects don't make commercial sense.There is the risk of running protests in several countries where projects have been planned. There is a protestagainst an industrial zone in Sri Lanka, which is part of OBOR program," he said.

Several members in AIIB, particularly those from Europe, do not share China's geopolitical ambitions, which may come in the way of approving projects along the OBOR route, he said. Besides, there is the risk of the next round of elections installing protectionist governments in Europe, which may be less enthusiastic about funding projects in Asia and elsewhere,Evans-Pritchard said.
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