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ຫວ​ຽດ​ນາມ ແລະ​ ຈີນ ເລີ້ມ​ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ກັນ​ອີກ ຫຼັງ​ຈາກ​ ໄດ້​ມີ​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນ​ໜ້າ​ກັນ


ແຜນ​ທີ່​ທະ​ເລ​ຈີນ​ໃຕ້

ຈີນ ແລະ​ຫວຽດ​ນາມ ສອງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ທີ່​ມີ​ການ​ຂັດ​ແຍ້ງ​ກັນ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ອະ​ທິ​ປະ​ໄຕ​ທາງ​ທະ​ເລ ເລີ້ມ​ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ກັນ​ອີກ ຫລັງ​ຈາກ​ໄດ້​ມີ​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນ​ໜ້າທີ່​ແກ່ຍາວ​ມາ​ໃນ​ປີນີ້ ໂດຍ​ກ້າວ​ເຂົ້າ​ສູ່​ອັນ​ທີ່​ພວກ​ນັກ​ວິ​ເຄາະ​ເອີ້ນ​ວ່າ ເປັນ​ການ​ສະແດງ​ອອກ​ໃນ​ການ​ຢາກ​ມີ​ສັນ​ຕິ​ພາບ ກ່ອນ​ທີ່​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນ​ໜ້າ​ຕື່ມ​ອີກ​ຈະ​ລະເບີດ​ຂຶ້ນ.

ພວກ​ນັກ​ສັງ​ເກດ​ການ​ທາງ​ດ້ານ​ການ​ເມືອງ ກ່າວ​ວ່າ ຈີນ​ໄດ້​ຖອນ​ກຳ​ປັ່ນ​ສຳ​ຫຼວດ​ຂອງ​ຕົນ​ຈາກ​ເຂດ​ນ່ານ​ນ້ຳ ​ທີ່​ມີ​ການ​ຂັດ​ແຍ້ງ​ກັນ ​ໃນ​ເດືອນ​ຕຸ​ລາ​ທີ່ຜ່ານ​ມາ ແລະ​ຫວຽດ​ນາມ​ກໍ​ໄດ້​ເຂົ້າ​ກຳ​ຕຳ​ແໜ່ງ​ປະ​ທານ​ວຽນ ຂອງສະ​ມາ​ຄົມ​ບັນ​ດາ​ປະ​ຊາ​ຊາດ​ໃນ​ເຂດ​ເອ​ເຊຍ​ຕາ​ເວັນ​ອອກ​ສຽງ​ໃຕ້ຫຼື​ອາ​ຊ່ຽນ ​ເປັນ​ເຫດ​ຜົນ​ທີ່ພາ​ໃຫ້​ປະ​ເທດ​ທັງ​ສອງ​ເລີ້ມ​ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ກັນ​ໃມ​ນ​ເດືອນນີ້.

ໃນ​ມື້​ວັນ​ພຸດ​ຜ່ານ​ມາ ຄະ​ນະ​ເຮັດ​ວຽກ ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ການ​ຮ່ວມ​ມື​ທາງ​ທະ​ເລ​ລະ​ຫວ່າງຫວຽດ​ນາມ​ແລະ​ຈີນ ໄດ້​ປະ​ຊຸມ​ກັນ​ເປັນ​ຮອບ​ທີ 13 ທີ່​ນະ​ຄອນ​ໂຮ່​ຈິ​ມິນ. ການປະ​ຊຸມ​ດັ່ງ​ກ່າວ ໄດ້​ນຳ​ເອົາ​ພວກ​ເຈົ້າ​ໜ້າ​ທີ່​ລະ​ດັບ​ກາງ​ຂອງ​ກະ​ຊວງ​ຕ່າງ​ປະ​ເທດ​ແຕ່​ລະ​ຝ່າຍ​ມາ​ພົບ​ພໍ້​ກັນ ອີງ​ຕາມ​ລາຍ​ງານ​ຂອງ​ອົງ​ການ​ຂ່າວ​ຫວຽດ​ນາມ.

ທ່ານ​ຄາ​ຣ​ລ ເທ​ເຢີ ສາ​ສະ​ດາ​ຈານຜູ້​ຊົງ​ຄຸນ​ນະ​ວຸດ​ທິ​ຈາກ​ມະ​ຫາ​ວິ​ທະ​ຍາ​ໄລ​ນິວ ຊາວ​ເວ​ລ​ສ໌ ທີ່​ຊ່ຽວ​ຊານ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ເຂດ​ເອ​ເຊຍ​ຕາ​ເວັນ​ອອກ​ສຽງ​ໃຕ້​ກ່າວ​ວ່າ “ສຳ​ລັບ​ຂ້າ​ພະ​ເຈົ້າ​ແລ້ວ ມັນ​ເບິ່ງ​ຄື​ວ່າ ພວກ​ເຂົາ​ເຈົ້າ​ກຳ​ລັງ​ເຄື່ອນ​ໄຫວ​ໄປ​ສູ່​ການ​ເຈລະ​ຈາ ຍ້ອນ​ວ່າ​ການ​ປະ​ເຊີນ​ໜ້າ​ກັນ ບໍ່​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ໃຊ້​ຈຸດ​ປະ​ສົງ​ໃດໆ​ຢ່າງ​ເປັນ​ການສະ​ເພາະ.

ຈີນ​ແລະ​ຫວຽດ​ນາມ​ໄດ້​ຜິດ​ຖຽງ​ແລະ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ກັນ​ມາ​ຫຼາຍ​ສິບ​ເທື່ອ​ແລ້ວ ໃນ​ໄລ​ຍະ 20 ປີ​ທີ່​ຜ່ານ​ມານີ້. ຄວາມ​ສຳ​ພັນ​ທາງ​ດ້ານ​ການ​ທູດ​ມີ​ຂຶ້ນ ຫລັງ​ຈາກ​ທັງສອງ​ຝ່າຍ​ໄດ້​ຝັງ​ບັນ​ຫາ​ທີ່​ສ​ະ​ເພາະ​ເຈາະ​ຈົງ​ໃດ​ນຶ່ງແລະ​ນຶ່ງ​ຫຼື​ທັງ​ສອງ​ຝ່າຍ​ຢາກສະ​ແດງ​ພາບ​ພົດ​ໃຫ້​ເຫັນ​ໃນ​ຖາ​ນະ​ຜູ້​ຮັກ​ຫອມ​ສັນ​ຕິ​ພາບ ໂດຍ​ສະ​ເພາະ​ໃນ​ຂະນະ​ທີ່​ຈີນ​ແລະ​ອາ​ຊ່ຽນ​ຈະ​ເປີດ​ການ​ສົນ​ທະ​ນາ​ກັນ ນັ້ນ​ຄື​ຄວາມ​ເຫັນ​ຂອງ​ພວກ​ນັກ​ຊ່ຽວ​ຊານ. ການ​ເຈ​ລະ​ຈາ​ຂອງ​ພວກ​ເຂົາ​ເຈົ້າ​ບໍ່​ໄດ້​ແກ້​ໄຂ​ບັນ​ຫາ​ຮາ​ເຫງົ້າ​ໃດໆ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ການ​ມິ​ສິດ​ທິ​ໃນ​ການ​ຄວບ​ຄຸມ​ທະ​ເລ​ຈີນ​ໃຕ້ ທີ່​ອຸ​ດົມ​ສົມ​ບູນ​ໄປ​ດ້ວຍ​ຊັບ​ພະ​ຍາ​ກອນ​ທຳ​ມະ​ຊາດນັ້ນ.

Maritime sovereignty rivals China and Vietnam have started talking again after a prolonged standoff earlier in the year, entering what analysts call a routine show of peace before more flare-ups.

China's withdrawal of a survey ship from disputed waters in October and Vietnam's ascent to chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations led the reasons that the two began talking this month, political observers say.

On Wednesday, a Vietnam-China working group on maritime cooperation held its 13thround of talks in Ho Chi Minh City. The event brought in mid-level officials from each side's foreign ministry, Viet Nam Newsreported.

"It seems to me they're moving into a phase of talk, because the confrontation no longer serves any particular purpose," said Carl Thayer, Southeast Asia-specialist emeritus professor with the University of New South Wales in Australia.

China and Vietnam have cycled through dozens of tiffs and talks over at least the past 20 years. Diplomacy normally comes after the two sides bury a specific issue and one or both wants to boost its image as a peacemaker -- especially when a tense China-ASEAN dialogue looms -- experts have said. Their talks do not solve underlying disagreements about rights to the resource-rich South China Sea.

"China's still maintaining a firm stance on the South China Sea issue," said Nguyen Thanh Trung, Center for International Studies director at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Ho Chi Minh City. "They will not make many concessions to push forward for negotiations with other countries in the region."

The two neighbors with a centuries-long history of territorial disputes both claim western parts of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea, although China is militarily and economically stronger, which has given it more clout at sea since the 1970s. Both countries are looking for potentially vast reserves of oil and gas under the seabed.

Cycle of spats, talks

Vietnam and China typically negotiate after China moves ships or a rig into contested waters, or Vietnamese step up energy exploration. For example, talkspicked up speed in 2014 as both sides wanted to get past an incident in which Vietnamese boats had rammed Chinese counterparts near the Gulf of Tonkin over Beijing's approval for an oil rig. Then, during a meeting in Vietnam in 2017, senior officials from both sides agreed to manage disputes in the sea.

This year's standoff began in June when a Chinese energy survey ship, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, began patrolling contested waters around Vanguard Bank, 350 kilometers off the coast of southeastern Vietnam. In October a rig contracted by Vietnam said it had stopped work in the tract and a day later the survey ship retreated.
Reasons for talks this month

Vietnam should look like a negotiator, not a fighter, among regional leaders over the next year as ASEAN chair, analysts say. Beijing for its part hopes to get along with Vietnam through its term into late 2020, in case the 10-country bloc takes action on the South China Sea, they say.

"China has to confront an ASEAN with Vietnam at the chair, which has already been very, very strongly opposing China's actions," Thayer said.

The Vietnamese government wants its citizens to see it trying to work with China in case something goes wrong later, Nguyen said.Talks might produce more deals on fishing or energy exploration, he added.

"For Vietnam, because now it's the ASEAN chair, so it doesn't look good on Vietnam if it continues to adopt a more militant stance toward China, especially after China has already withdrawn that survey vessel from Vanguard bank," said Collin Koh, maritime security research fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

In the future, though, China will still "coerce within a manageable threshold" and Vietnam will want China to stop, Koh said. The negotiations now mark a "repetition of the cycle" of struggle and reconciliation, he said.

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