ລິ້ງ ສຳຫລັບເຂົ້າຫາ

ວັນອັງຄານ, ໐໘ ຕຸລາ ໒໐໒໔

ການມອງ​ໄປ​ຂ້າງ​ໜ້າ ຜົນການ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້ງ​ຂັ້​ນ​ຕົ້ນ ໃນ​ລັດ​ມິ​ຊິ​ແກນ ຈະ​ເປັນ​ແນວ​ໃດ


ທ່ານ Bernie Sanders (ຊ້າຍ) ແລະ​ອະ​ດີດ​ຮອງ​ປະ​ທາ​ນາ​ທິ​ບໍ​ດີ Joe Biden ທີ່​ເປັນ​ຄູ່​ແຂ່ງ​ກັນ​ໃນ​ການ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້ງ​ຂັ້ນ​ຕົ້ນ ​ທີ່​ຈັດ​ຂຶ້ນ​ໃນ​ຫລາຍ​ລັດ​ໃນ​ມື້ນີ້, ວັນ​ທີ 10 ມີ​ນາ 2020
ທ່ານ Bernie Sanders (ຊ້າຍ) ແລະ​ອະ​ດີດ​ຮອງ​ປະ​ທາ​ນາ​ທິ​ບໍ​ດີ Joe Biden ທີ່​ເປັນ​ຄູ່​ແຂ່ງ​ກັນ​ໃນ​ການ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້ງ​ຂັ້ນ​ຕົ້ນ ​ທີ່​ຈັດ​ຂຶ້ນ​ໃນ​ຫລາຍ​ລັດ​ໃນ​ມື້ນີ້, ວັນ​ທີ 10 ມີ​ນາ 2020

ໃນ​ປີ 2016, ລັດມິ​ຊິ​ແກນ​ເຄີຍໄດ້​ນຳ​ເອົາ​ໄຊ​ຊະ​ນະ​ທີ່​ໜ້າ​ເຫລືອ​ເຊື່ອ​ທີ່​ສຸດ​ຄັ້ງ​ນຶ່ງ​ມາ​ໃຫ້​ແກ່ສະ​ມາ​ຊິກ​ສະ​ພາ​ສູງ ເບີ​ນີ ແຊນ​ເດີ​ສ໌ (Bernie Sanders) ຢູ່​ໃນ​ປະ​ຫວັດ​ສາດ​ທາງ​ການ​ເມືອງ​ຂອງ​ສະ​ຫະ​ລັດ.

ໃນ​ປີ 2020 ຜູ້​ທີ່​ເອີ້ນ​ຕົນ​ເອງວ່າ​ ເປັນ​ນັກ​ສັງ​ຄົມ​ນິ​ຍົມ​ປະ​ຊາ​ທິ​ປະ​ໄຕ​ນັ້ນ ຈະ ຕ້ອງ​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ແຮ​ງ​ກະ​ຕຸ້ນ​ອີກ​ຄັ້ງ​ນຶ່ງ​ຈາກລັດມິ​ຊິ​ແກນ ເພື່ອ​ຈະ​ເຮັດໃຫ້ການ​ໂຄ​ສະ​ນາ​ຫາ​ສຽງ​ຂອງ​ທ່ານກັບມາ​ຮັບ​ປະ​ກັນຄືນໄດ້​ວ່າ ທ່ານຈະ​ຖືກ​ແຕ່ງ​ຕັ້ງ​ໃຫ້​ເປັນ​ຜູ້​ຕາງໜ້າ​ພັກ​ເດ​ໂມ​ແຄ​ຣັດ​ ໃນ​ການ​ແຂ່ງ​ຂັນ​ປະ​ທາ​ນາ​ທິ​ບໍ​ດີ ເພື່ອ​ສູ້​ກັບ​ຄູ່​ແຂ່ງທີ່​ຍັງ​ເຫລືອ​ຄົນ​ດຽວ​ຂອງ​ທ່ານ ຊຶ່ງ​ກໍ​ຄື​ອະ​ດີດ​ປະ​ທາ​ນາ​ທິ​ບໍ​ດີ ໂຈ ໄບ​ເດັນ.ນ​ຈຳ​ນວນ 6 ລັດ ​ທີ່​ຈັ​ດ​ໃຫ້​ມີ​ການ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້ງ​ຂັ້ນ​ຕົ້ນໃນ​ວັນ​ອັງ​ຄານມື້ນີ້ ເພື່ອ​ໃຫ້​ຜູ້​ສະ​ໝັກ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້

ໂດຍ​ທີ່​ມີ​ຜູ້​ແທນ​ໃນ​ການ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້ງ​ຢູ່ 125 ຄົນ, ລັດມິ​ຊິ​ແກນເປັນ​ລັດ​ທີ່​ມີ​ຄະ​ແນນ​ທີ່​ສູງ​ທີ່​ສຸດໃງ​ແຂ່ງ​ກັນ​ຄວ້າ​ເອົາ. ທ່ານ ແຊນ​ເດີ​ສ໌ໄດ້​ສົ່ງ​ສັນ​ຍານ​ເຕືອນ​ໃຫ້​ການ​ໂຄ​ສະ​ນາ​ຫາ​ສຽງ​ຂອງ​ທ່ານ ໃຫ້​ເຫັນເຖິງ​ຄວາມ​ສຳ​ຄັນ​ຂອງລັດມິ​ຊິ​ແກນ ໂດຍ​ໄດ້ຍົກ​ເລີກການ​ໂຮມຊຸມ​ນຸມທີ່​ມີ​ແຜນ​ຈັດ​ຂຶ້ນ​ໃນ​ລັດ​ມິ​ຊ​ຊິ​ສ​ສິບປີນັ້ນໄປ ເພື່ອ​ຈັດ​ງານ​ໂຮມ​ຊຸມ​ນຸມ 5 ບ່ອນ​ ຢູ່​ໃນ​ລັດ​ດັ່ງ​ກ່າວໃນວັນ​ທ້າຍ​ອາ​ທິດຜ່ານ​ມາ ຊຶ່ງ​ລວມ​ທັງເມືອງເດຍບອນ (Dearborn) ບ່ອນ​ທີ່​ມີ​ປະ​ຊາ​ຄົມ​ຊາວ​ມຸ​ສ​ລິມ​ໃຫຍ່​ທີ່​ສຸດ​ຢູ່​ໃນ​ປະ​ເທດ ​ໃຫ້​ການ​ສະ​ໜັບ​ສະ​ໜຸນ​ແກ່ທ່ານນັ້ນ.

​ເມືອງ​ເດຍບອນ (Dearborn) ເປັນ​ເຂດ​ນຶ່ງ​ນອນ​ຢູ່ໃນ​ຫລາຍໆ​ເຂດທີ່​ຊ່ວຍ​ໃຫ້​ທ່ານແຊນ​ເດີ​ສ໌ ໄດ້ຮັບໄຊ​ຊະ​ນະ​ໃນ​ປີ 2016 ໃນການ​ເລືອກ​ຕັ້ງ​ຂັ້ນ​ຕົ້ນ​ຢູ່​ໃນລັດ ມິ​ຊິ​ແກນໃນ​ການ​ແຂ່ງ​ກັບ​ທ່ານ​ນາງ​ແຮ​ລ​ລາ​ຣີ ຄ​ລິນ​ຕັນ ​ຜູ້ທີ່ໃນ​ທີ່​ສຸດກໍ​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ການ​ແຕ່ງ​ຕັ້ງ​ໃຫ້ເປັນ​ຜູ້​ຕາງ​ໜ້າ​ພັກ​ນັ້ນ ໂດຍໄດ້ຮັບ​ຄະ​ແນນ​ສຽງໃກ້​ຄຽງ​ກັນ ຄື 49.8 ເປີ​ເຊັນ ຕໍ່ 48.3 ເປີ​ເຊັນ. ພາຍ​ຫລັງ​ທີ່ມີ​ຄະ​ແນນ​ລາກ​ຫລັງ​ທ່ານ​ນາງ ຄ​ລິນ​ຕັນ​ຢູ່​ໃນ​ການ​ຢັ່ງ​ຫາງ​ສຽງ​ແລ້ວ, ທ່ານແຊນ​ເດີ​ສ໌ ກໍໄດ້ຮັບ​ໄຊ​ຊະ​ນະ​ໂດຍ​ໄດ້​ຄະ​ແນນ​ລື່ນ​ທ່ານ​ນາງ​ພຽງ​ແຕ່ 17,000 ຄະ​ແນນ​ເທົ່າ​ນັ້ນ.

ທ່ານ ແຊນ​ເດີ​ສ໌ ແນ​ໃສ່​ປັບ​ປຸງ​ຊ່ອງ​ຫວ່າງຂອງ​ຄະ​ແນນທີ່​ສູ​ສີ​ກັນນັ້ນ​ຂຶ້ນ ໃນ​ການ​ຍາດ​ເອົາ​ໄຊ​ຊະ​ນະ​ໃນ​ປີ 2020 ນີ້ ເຖິງ​ແມ່ນ​ວ່າ ຢູ່​ໃນ​ບາງ​ລັດ​ເທົ່າ​ທຸກວັນ​ນີ້ ທ່ານຕ້ອງປະ​ສົບ​ກັບຄວາມ​ຫຍຸ້ງ​ຍາກໃນກວດ​ຕ້ອນເອົາຄະ​ແນນ​ຈາກ​ຜູ້​ປ່ອນ​ບັດ​ໃຫ້​ໄດ້ໃນ​ຈຳ​ນວນ​ເທົ່າ​ກັນກັບຈຳ​ນວນ​ຂອງປີ 2016 ນັ້ນຢູ່​ກໍ​ຕາມ. ການ​ຢັ່ງ​ຫາງ​ສຽງ​ຂອງບໍ​ລິ​ສັດ Detroit Free Press ທີ່​ເຜີຍ​ແຜ່​ອອກ​ມາ​ໃນ​ວັນ​ຈັນ​ວານນີ້ ຮູ້​ສຶກບໍ່ມີ​ທ່າ​ທີວ່າຈະໃຫ້​ຄວາມ​ຫວັງ​ແກ່ທ່ານ​ຫລາຍ​ປານ​ໃດ. ການ​ຢັ່ງ​ຫາງ​ສຽງຜູ້​ປ່ອນ​ບັດ 400 ຄົນ​ ໃນ​ລັດ​ມິ​ຊິ​ແກນສະ​ແດງ​ໃຫ້​ເຫັນ​ວ່າທ່ານໄບ​ເດັນ ໄດ້​ຄະ​ແນນ​ລື່ນ​ທ່ານແຊນ​ເດີ​ສ໌ ຢ່າງ​ຫລວງ​ຫລາຍ ຄື 51 ເປີ​ເຊັນ ຕໍ່ 27 ເປີ​ເຊັນ.

"ຖ້າ​ຫາກ​ທ່ານ​ເບ​ນີບໍ່​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ໄຊ​ຊະ​ນະໂດຍ​ມີ​ຄະ​ແນນ​ຢ່າງ​ຫລວງ​ຫລາຍ​ ໃນ​ລັດ​ມິ​ຊິ​ແກນແລ້ວ ເຮົາກໍ​ຈະ​ເລີ້ມ​ໄດ້​ເຫັນ​ການສິ້ນສຸດລົງ​ຂອງ​ການ​ສະ​ໝັກ​ເປັນ​ປະ​ທາ​ນາ​ທິ​ບໍ​ດີ​ຂອງ​ທ່ານ" ນັ້ນ​ຄື​ຄຳ​ເຫັນ​ຂອງທ່ານຈີມ ແຄ​ສ​ເລີ (Jim Kessler) ຮອງ​ປະ​ທານ​ຂັ້ນ​ສູງ​ຂອງ​ອົງ​ການ​ Third Way ທີ່ເປັນ​ສະ​ຖາ​ບັນຄົ້ນ​ຄວ້າ​ດ້ານ​ນະ​ໂຍບາຍ​ຂອງປະ​ເທດ ແລະ​ອະ​ດີດ​ຫົວ​ໜ້ານິ​ຕິ​ບັນ​ຍັດ​ຂອງ​ສະ​ມາ​ຊິກ​ສະ​ພາ​ຕ່ຳ ຈຊາກ​ສ໌ ຊຸມ​ເມີ​ໃນ​ສະໄ​ໝນັ້ນ.

ນີ້​ຄື​ເຫດ​ການທາງ​ການ​ເມືອງ 4 ຢ່າງ​ທີ່​ຄວນ​ຕິດ​ຕາມ​ເບິ່ງຢູ່​ໃນ​ລັດ​ມິ​ຊິ​ແກນໃນ​ວັນ​ອັງ​ຄານ​ມື້ນີ້.

ເບິ່ງວີ​ດິ​ໂອ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ຂ່າວນີ້​ເພີ້ມ​ເປັນ​ພາ​ສາ​ອັງ​ກິດ

ອ່ານ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ຂ່າວນີ້​ເພີ້​ມ​ເປັນ​ພາ​ສ​າ​ອັງ​ກິດ

In 2016, Michigan gave Sen. Bernie Sanders one of the most surprising primary wins in U.S. political history.

In 2020, the self-described democratic socialist will need another boost from Michigan to revive his campaign to secure the Democratic presidential nomination over his lone remaining major rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.

With 125 delegates, Michigan is the biggest prize up for grabs among the six states holding primaries Tuesday. Sanders signaled the importance of Michigan to his campaign, abandoning a planned rally in Mississippi to hold five campaign events in the state over the weekend, including one in Dearborn, where the nation's largest Muslim community strongly supports him.

Dearborn was one of the areas that helped Sanders secure his 2016 victory in the Michigan primary over eventual Democratic party nominee Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin of 49.8% to 48.3%. After trailing Clinton significantly in the polls, Sanders won by just 17,000 votes.

Sanders aims to improve on that narrow margin of victory in 2020, even though in some states to date, he has struggled to turn out voters in the same numbers he did in 2016. A Detroit Free Press poll released Monday does not look promising for him. The survey of 400 Michigan voters shows Biden outpacing Sanders by a significant margin — 51% to 27%.

"If Bernie doesn't score a big victory in Michigan, you're really starting to see the end of the possibility of his candidacy," said Jim Kessler, a senior vice president at public policy think tank Third Way, and former legislative director for then-Congressman Charles Schumer.

Here are four things to watch politically in Michigan on Tuesday:

Rivals matter

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won delegates in the more populous areas of Detroit, but Sanders pulled off his win by securing big upsets in rural counties, appealing to a core constituency of white working-class voters. Analysts say Sanders's win in 2016 was due in large part to Clinton's weakness with what has traditionally been a core constituency of the Democratic Party.

"The dynamics are very, very different from four years ago when Sanders and Clinton were more neck and neck at this point in the process," said Dave Dulio, a professor of political science at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan.

Biden is rolling into Michigan on a wave of Super Tuesday momentum, with proof from the South Carolina primary that he can mobilize the African American vote — a key constituency in Michigan — as well as bring new voters to the polls, as evidenced by record turnout in key swing states such as Texas and Virginia.

"There are a couple of things there that could help Biden relative to Hillary Clinton," Kessler said. "The place I would look to is the suburbs — there's a lot more suburban Democratic voters in 2020 than there was in 2016. These are the people that moved from Trump. These are the people that delivered the majority to Democrats in 2018. Do they come out and vote in large numbers the way they did in Virginia and North Carolina? And if they do, that will carry Biden over."

Michigan will also be a test of Sanders's argument that his campaign can mobilize overlooked voters, including younger voters and voters of color.

"Young people are notoriously unreliable voters, for whatever reason," said Vincent Hutchings, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan Ann Arbor. "If that population turns out in high numbers, that's a good sign for Sanders."

Hutchings also noted Sanders's strength among Michigan's Muslim population. He won the endorsement of Emgage, the nation's only Muslim political action community for directly appealing to an electorate that is often overlooked by other politicians. At the same time, Sanders's strength in Latino communities helps little in Michigan, where that demographic makes up only a small part of the electorate.

African American vote

Sanders's weakness with African American voters could be the blow that kills his chances in Michigan.
Democratic delegate math in Michigan is anything but straightforward. Democrats allocate their delegates according to the statewide vote and the vote by congressional districts. Because of this weighting system, winning boils down to securing large population areas such as the predominantly African American city of Detroit. Sanders failed to win the city in 2016, and his poor 2020 performances in southern states with African American electorates does not bode well for his chances in the Motor City.

Hutchings said African Americans make up about 15% of the Michigan electorate overall, and an even larger share of the Democratic voters controlling the results Tuesday.

"I would be very surprised, extremely surprised, if Sanders were to win the black vote in the state. And because that vote typically votes in the bloc fashion, that means that it's going to be difficult, not impossible, but difficult. If that remains the case, it's going to be difficult for Sanders to win," said Hutchings.

Meanwhile, Biden heads into the primary with major endorsements from two former African American presidential candidates, senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, who were campaigning with him in Detroit Monday.

The impact of endorsements
In addition to the Harris and Booker endorsements, Biden also gained the support of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Sanders endorsed Whitmer's progressive Democratic challenger, Abdul El-Sayed, in 2018, but campaigned for her in the general election.

Analysts differ on the impact of endorsements. Conventional political wisdom holds that endorsements usually do not dramatically alter political races. That appears to have been upended this election cycle with the boost Biden received from Congressman James Clyburn, a Democrat from South Carolina who gave the former vice president his stamp of approval just days before the do-or-die primary in his home state, which Biden won handily.

Biden had pinned his hopes on his ability to mobilize the African American vote in South Carolina after severely disappointing showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, two smaller states that do not reflect the demographic diversity of the United States.

Both Dulio and Hutchings said Whitmer's endorsement of Biden in Michigan was significant.

"It certainly is a highly visible endorsement for the Biden campaign, and it can't hurt him," Hutchings said. "It probably helped him increase the (vote) margins."

Trade wars
Sanders's campaign does have a strength that is uniquely suited to Michigan: outreach to blue-collar factory workers, which has been a central point of his presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020. Nowhere is that more important than in Michigan, the center of the auto industry.

Sanders has been savaging Biden's record on trade, citing his support for NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) on the campaign trail and in numerous advertisements airing locally, according to Dulio.

He said that argument could resonate with the all-important suburban women demographic, swinging some of their votes to Sanders.

"Michigan is a unique place, because so many people are tied to the auto industry. Whether it's in a place like Macomb County, where you're talking about folks who work in manufacturing and do the manufacturing at Ford, GM and Chrysler plants, or part of the auto manufacturers supply chain, or if you're talking about folks in, say, Oakland County right next door, who are part of the white-collar contingent of auto company employees," said Dulio.

If Sanders can convince those key voters their livelihoods are at stake in this election, his campaign may be able to survive past Michigan.

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